The trucking industry’s long downturn is finally easing after a years-long freight recession, but the recovery is being driven by decreased availability of capacity rather than increased freight. Fleets and drivers are leaving the industry, and new truck purchases are running below replacement levels, gradually tightening capacity in what American Trucking Associations Chief Economist and Senior Vice President Bob Costello called a “supply-side cycle.” “I’m going to let you decide if the glass is half full or half empty. I’m going to go with it being half full,” Costello said while speaking during NATSO Connect 2026 in late February.